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Fallout from the coronavirus pandemic will lead to a deep recession in 2020, marking a second year of contraction in real GDP. The government’s delay in introducing social distancing and reluctance to provide fiscal stimulus will worsen the blow. Dithering in the face of the crisis will the reduce the popularity of the left-wing populist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The mid-term elections for 2021 now appear competitive, but the president’s Morena party should hold its majority.